Table 9 Asymmetric spatial price transmission
Causal direction | Long-run estimates | Estimates from the ECM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
MATOKE | ||||
WP_Kampala = > WP_Mbarara [ARDL(2, 0)], LR and SR symmetry imposed | WP_Kampala | 0.9805*** (14.3259) | ΔWP_Mbarara(− 1) | 0.1788*** (2.8692) |
C | − 0.1122 (− 0.2488) | ECT(− 1) | − 0.7941*** (− 13.1513) | |
R-squared | 0.8208 | |||
DW stat | 2.0308 | |||
WP_Mbarara = > RP_Kampala [ARDL (4, 0, 1)] | LR symmetry imposed | ΔRP_Kampala(− 1) | − 0.0322 (− 0.4785) | |
WP_Mbarara | 0.7320*** (8.1315) | ΔRP_Kampala(− 2) | − 0.0453 (− 0.6799) | |
C | 2.2176*** (3.8883) | ΔRP_Kampala(− 3) | − 0.1906*** (− 2.8575) | |
ΔWP_Mbarara− | 0.6144***(9.2364) | |||
ECT(− 1) | − 0.5340***(− 8.0188) | |||
R-squared | 0.8476 | |||
DW stat | 1.9903 | |||
BEANS | ||||
WP_Masindi = > WP_Kampala [ARDL (1, 0, 3)] | WP_Masindi+ | 0.8400*** (10.2231) | ΔWP_Masindi− | 0.6249***(7.1565) |
WP_Masindi− | 0.8054*** (9.5742) | ΔWP_Masindi−(− 1) | 0.1194 (1.2747) | |
C | 7.2774***(132.3281) | ΔWP_Masindi−(− 2) | − 0.2407*** (− 2.6524) | |
ECT(− 1) | − 0.5907***(− 7.6232) | |||
R-squared | 0.8248 | |||
DW stat | 1.9613 | |||
WP_Masindi = > RP_Kampala [ARDL (3, 0, 2)] | WP_Masindi+ | 0.5264*** (9.6489) | ΔRP_Kampala(− 1) | 0.1191 (1.5956) |
WP_Masindi− | 0.4884*** (8.7823) | ΔRP_Kampala(− 2) | − 0.1465* (− 1.9637) | |
C | 7.5714***(217.6952) | ΔWP_Masindi− | 0.2221***(3.2310) | |
ΔWP_Masindi−(− 1) | 0.1300* (1.8033) | |||
ECT(− 1) | − 0.6539*** (− 8.0303) | |||
R-squared | 0.8180 | |||
DW stat | 1.9500 | |||
MAIZE (LR and SR symmetry imposed in both models) | ||||
WP_Masindi = > RP_Kampala [ARDL (1, 0)] | WP_Masindi | 0.4036*** (9.3802) | ECT(− 1) | − 0.4552*** (− 8.9234) |
C | 4.6513*** (16.3322) | R-squared | 0.8230 | |
DW stat | 1.9583 | |||
WP_Tororo = > RP_Kampala [ARDL (1, 1)] | WP_Tororo | 0.4581*** (8.3507) | ΔWP_Tororo | 0.3389*** (8.2747) |
C | 4.2247*** (11.3934) | ECT(− 1) | − 0.3558*** (− 5.0363) | |
R-squared | 0.8575 | |||
DW stat | 2.0582 | |||