Table 4 ARDL and NARDL model results

GDP⁻

0.0854**

2.07

GDP

0.640*

28.34

GDP⁺

0.187*

2.24

INR

− 0.217**

6.48

INR⁻

− 0.0157

− 1.72

INR

− 0.034

− 0.74

INR⁺

− 0.048

− 1.68

INF

− 0.215**

− 3.54

INF⁻

− 0.0146

− 1.88

UM

− 0.008**

− 2.55

INF⁺

− 0.0107

− 1.95

GD

0.006

0.06

UM⁻

0.189**

3.36

EPU

− 0.012**

− 3.013

UM⁺

0.046

1.88

–

–

–

GD⁻

− 0.0087*

− 2.29

–

–

–

GD⁺

− 0.0035**

− 2.74

–

–

–

ER⁻

0.0048

1.08

–

–

–

ER⁺

0.0021**

2.96

–

–

–

EPU⁻

− 0.00875**

− 3.68

–

–

–

EPU⁺

− 0.00654**

− 2.07

–

–

–

Bond test

F = 7.62

F = 10.79

ECM

− 0.92 (0.000)

− 0.96 (0.000)

White Heteroscedasticity Test (prob.)

(0.218)

(0.314)

Breusch–Godfrey serial correlation LM test (prob.)

(0.324)

(0.241)

Normality test (prob.)

(0.419)

(0.154)

Ramsey’s test (prob.)

(0.273)

(0.159)

CUSUM Test

Stable at 5% level

Stable at 5% level

CUSUM of squares test

Stable at 5% level

Stable at 5% level

R-squared

0.949

0.935

Adj. R-squared

0.901

0.893

Prob. (F-statistic)

0.000

0.000