From: Analysis of financial contagion in influential African stock markets
South Africa | Nigeria | Egypt | Tunisia | Kenya | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean equation | |||||
Constant | 2.08681 (0.5713) | 0.77250 (1.0428) | 4.362748* (1.5090) | 1.84230 (0.5931) | 1.61047 (0.7928) |
\(\rho_{t - 1}\) | 0.59577 (0.0756) | 0.46649 (0.1542) | 0.99086 (0.2114) | 0.09585 (0.0794) | 0.56332 (0.1207) |
\(DM_{2,t}\) | − 0.96209 (0.9314) | 1.89505* (1.8657) | − 3.77196** (2.3908) | − 0.86753 (0.9871) | − 2.53542 (1.4099) |
\(DM_{3,t}\) | − 1.59334 (0.6562) | − 0.53759 (1.2752) | − 4.37373* (1.7917) | 0.86123 (0.7384) | − 1.77603 (0.9243) |
Variance equation | |||||
Constant | 1.37401 (0.3099) | 1.26122 (0.5388) | 1.38831 (0.9809) | 1.28640 (0.3034) | 0.86895 (0.4392) |
\(\varepsilon_{t - 1}^{2}\) | 0.07411 (0.1268) | − 0.043560 (0.3597) | 0.61765 (0.2655) | 0.21021 (0.1325) | 0.10640 (0.2409) |
\(h_{t - 1}\) | 0.75845 (0.2379) | 0.83192 (0.0734) | − 0.17014 (0.0669) | 0.54463 (0.1552) | 0.72677 (0.2788) |
\(DM_{2,t}\) | 0.72094 (0.5295) | − 0.12459 (0.6018) | − 0.27262 (0.5983) | 0.35703 (0.5567) | 1.33391 (0.6577) |
\(DM_{3,t}\) | − 0.61334 (0.4363) | − 0.14626 (0.2700) | − 0.24832 (0.3020) | 0.22425 (0.4342) | − 0.21671 (0.5154) |
Q(5) | 1214.3954 | 1100.7270 | 2135.8967 | 1246.1406 | 1240.7504 |
ARCH(5) | 0.34044 | 0.47461* | 1.26249*** | 0.32965 | 0.61658** |