Skip to main content

Table 5 Linear and nonlinear ARDL models of unemployment effect of oil price change with structural break.

From: Investigating the relationship between changes in oil prices and unemployment rate in Nigeria: linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches

Variable

Real oil price (Brent)

Real oil price (WTI)

ARDL

NARDL

ARDL

NARDL

d(lunempl_1)

0.452***

0.429***

0.415***

0.378***

d(lropbtr)

0.100**

   

d(lropbtr_pos)

 

0.069*

  

d(lropbtr_neg)

 

0.108*

  

d(lrwti)

  

0.048

 

d(lrwti_pos)

   

0.026

d(lrwti_neg)

   

0.083*

d(lrgdp)

− 1.267***

− 1.091**

− 0.148

− 0.221**

d(lcpi)

0.065

− 0.114

− 0.825***

− 0.908***

d(lrate)

0.007

0.009

0.010**

0.009**

d(fdi)

− 0.017

− 0.013

0.024**

0.020*

d(z)

− 1.425***

− 1.375***

− 0.397*

0.200***

d(z(-1))

0.198

   

d(zlcpi)

  

0.132**

 

d(zlrate)

0.024***

0.024***

0.009*

 

d(zfdi)

0.133***

0.123***

0.029**

0.035***

d(zfdi(-1))

− 0.065***

− 0.040***

  

ect(-1)

− 0.100***

− 0.118***

− 0.082***

− 0.138***

c

23.454

52.532**

57.642

136.880*

lropbtr

0.093

   

lropbtr_pos

 

0.584*

  

lropbtr_neg

 

− 0.011

  

lrwti

  

− 0.197

 

lrwti_pos

   

0.514

lrwti_neg

   

− 0.988*

lrgdp

− 0.647

− 1.636**

− 1.803

− 4.398*

lcpi

1.333***

0.567

0.525

0.235

lrate

− 0.147***

− 0.112***

− 0.047

− 0.089*

fdi

− 0.173

− 0.112

− 0.125

− 0.240

z

− 7.916***

− 5.735***

− 8.681***

− 2.745

zlcpi

  

1.602**

 

zlrate

0.250***

0.206***

0.114*

 

zfdi

0.297

0.158

0.355*

0.698**

R-squared

0.9950

0.9950

0.9961

0.9961

Adjusted R-squared

0.9944

0.9944

0.9956

0.9957

F-statistic

1543.155

(0.0000)

1547.594

(0.0000)

2069.358

(0.0000)

2227.723

(0.0000)

Durbin–Watson stat

2.110

2.028

1.895

1.820

ARDL bounds test

3.064*

3.630**

3.489**

3.804**

Diagnostic tests

Jarque–Bera

114.176

(0.0000)

133.367

(0.000)

162.823

(0.0000)

216.905

(0.0000)

B–G serial corr. LM test

0.670

(0.5136)

0.849

(0.4299)

0.776

(0.3802)

2.463

(0.1190)

ARCH LM test

1.1092

(0.2939)

0.623

(0.4311)

1.488

(0.2294)

1.532

(0.2198)

Ramsey RESET test

0.1402

(0.8887)

0.790

(0.3758)

0.059

(0.9531)

0.004

(0.9970)

CUSUM test

Stable

Stable

Unstable

Unstable

CUSUM square test

Unstable

Unstable

Unstable

Unstable

  1. ***, ** and * denote the 1%, 5% and 10% levels of significance, respectively