Table 4 Linear and nonlinear ARDL models of unemployment effect of oil price change without structural break.

d(lunempl_1)

0.447***

0.442***

0.459***

0.433***

d(lropbtr)

0.078*

d(lropbtr_pos)

0.054

d(lropbtr_neg)

0.105*

d(lrwt)

0.065

d(lrwtin_pos)

0.080*

d(lrwtin_neg)

0.074

d(lrgdp)

0.014

− 0.168*

0.044

0.774

d(lcpi)

0.023**

− 0.198*

− 0.552***

− 0.622***

d(lrate)

0.007

0.007

0.009

0.008

d(fdi)

0.032**

0.036***

0.025***

0.038***

ect(-1)

− 0.051***

− 0.078***

− 0.056***

− 0.086***

c

− 5.613

66.873*

− 21.417

95.592**

lropbtr

− 0.126

lropbtr_pos

0.691*

lropbtr_neg

− 0.252

lrwti

− 0.365

lrwti_pos

0.939**

Lrwti_neg

− 0.319

lrgdp

0.272

− 2.139*

0.791

− 3.067**

lcpi

0.446**

− 0.160

0.254

− 0.278*

lrate

− 0.083*

− 0.058**

− 0.067*

− 0.056**

fdi

− 0.275*

− 0.180**

− 0.115

− 0.073

R-squared

0.9939

0.9941

0.9949

0.9952

Adjusted R-squared

0.9935

0.9936

0.9945

0.9947

F-statistic

2387.895

(0.0000)

2046.025

(0.0000)

193.579

(0.0000)

2113.660

(0.0000)

Durbin–Watson stat

1.998

1.947

1.949

1.889

ARDL bounds test

4.791***

4.622***

4.107**

4.805***

Diagnostic tests

Jarque–Bera

141.573

(0.0000)

135.167

(0.0000)

259.084

(0.0000)

287.498

(0.0000)

B-G serial corr. LM test

1.515

(0.2233)

0.299

(0.5853)

0.241

(0.6241)

1.175

0.2803)

Het. ARDL LM test

2.308

(0.1307)

2.617

(0.1078)

2.019

(0.1366)

1.487

(0.2296)

Ramsey RESET test

1.189

(0.2363)

0.427

(0.6699)

2.243

(0.0265)

0.661

(0.5095)

CUSUM test

Stable

Stable

Stable

Unstable

CUSUM Square test

Unstable

Unstable

Unstable

Unstable